Beyond the Metric. Human performance measurement: how much confidence a number actually earns.
Goals saved above expected, season to season
If this measurement repeated, the dots would sit on the diagonal. They are the cloud. We measure how much confidence a number actually earns before you make a decision on it.
The more isolated metric
repeated less.
In one of our analyses, the statistic built to replace save percentage turned out to be less consistent from one season to the next than the one it replaced. The more isolated metric repeated less. We test measurements on real data at real scale, publish what fails beside what holds, and build tools on what survives.
Reliability
Does the
measurement repeat?
A goaltender's save percentage. A pitcher's spin rate. A striker's finishing rate. A combine vertical jump. If a number does not repeat well enough for the decision at hand, the decision needs more than the number.
From the work: The .930 Mirage · The GSAx Paradox
Selection
Does the screening
decision predict?
An NHL draft board. The NFL combine. An NBA lottery pick. A tryout cut. Every selection is a screening test, and screening tests have a known mathematics of being wrong.
From the work: The Screening Test
Inference
Does the outcome
justify the verdict?
A playoff series. A World Cup shootout. A major final. A season award. Outcomes arrive one at a time, and one outcome is almost never enough to conclude anything.
From the work: The Colorado Problem · The Momentum Illusion
Physiology
Does behaviour reveal
an internal state?
Shooting time under load. A driver holding 5g in traffic. A rider's third week in France. A HYROX pacing collapse. The body leaks information through behaviour, and most of it is fainter than it looks.
From the work: The Autonomic Frontier · The Lost Step
Structure
Does the pattern
predict the outcome?
Shot entropy. Possession structure. A bullpen's usage pattern. Concentration of chances. Structure is real and measurable. Whether it predicts anything is a separate question, and we test it.
From the work: The Entropy Series · The Restoring Force
The evidence
The Lost Step
A veteran loses a step, scouts say. Five seasons of NHL tracking data show top speed holds and distance per game does not.The Momentum Illusion
Carolina scored three goals in 39 seconds and the whole sport called it momentum. We checked 477 playoff goals to see if momentum is real, or just memory.The GSAx Paradox
The analytics community's preferred goaltending metric is less reliable than the one it was designed to improve. 550 consecutive-season pairs across 18 years explain why.The .930 Mirage
1,869 goalie-seasons. 18 years. The year-to-year correlation for save percentage is r = 0.33. Only 11% of the variance is real. The rest is a mirage.Work with us
Measurement Review
OpenWe look at what you measure and what you decide with it, and tell you whether the two line up. One test or a whole battery. Are these the right measurements, are you comparing the right things, and how large does a difference have to be before it means anything? Comparing two people and following one person over time are not the same question and do not carry the same error. That holds for a roster, a recruit class, a workplace standard, or a clinic.
Book a call →Measurement Systems & Automation
OpenFor teams, clubs, occupational groups and clinics whose measurements live on paper, in spreadsheets, or across tools that do not talk to each other. We automate the collection and build the workflows, AI included, that turn it into something your staff can use the same day. It is the same engineering that runs our own athlete results platform. Built around your setup, not sold as a seat licence.
Book a call →New analyses when they are worth reading.
No schedule. No filler. Just original sports analytics, transparent methodology, and findings that survived real scrutiny.